Counterfactual prediction
lastmod 2026-10-30created 2026-10-303 edits
Counterfactual prediction is the ability to predict "what would have happened if a different choice had been made?"
Concept
It infers, based on what actually happened in the past (observed facts), the outcome of having taken a different action that was not taken (hypothetical facts).
Role in world models
It lets an agent plan the optimal action (Planning) by simulating various "what-if scenarios" in its own head (the world model), without having to try every action directly in the real world.
Example
An autonomous driving world model reasoning that "if I had kept going straight without braking earlier (counterfactual), there would have been an accident (prediction)."